As play progresses in a Texas-Holdem game the player will be faced with having to evaluate the odds of his current cards being held improving to a winning hand. This involves some basic arithmetic calculations. Count the number of cards not exposed which would turn your incomplete poker hand into a hand which you would expect to be a winner. You then multiply this number by the remaining empty card positions left on the table. For the percentage that you will receive this card, double this number.
For example: Your hand has J-J, the flop is K-7-10, with the turn and river to come. The odds of receiving another J is 2 cards times 2 positions times 2 or 8% of the time. Looking at it the other way you will lose 92% of the time if you determine you will need a set to win. If you suspect another player has a K or two pair, you may want to fold.
For example: Your hand has A, 3 of hearts, the flop is 7, 10 of hearts and 6 of clubs with the turn and river to come. The odds of receiving another heart is 10 cards times 2 positions times 2 or 40% of the time or looking at it the other way you will lose 60% of the time. If the money in the pot is over 1.5 times (60/40) the money you will be required to bet to see the turn you should pay to see the turn. If no heart shows then the odds of seeing a heart on the river are 10 cards times 1 position times 2 or 20% of the time. In this case if the money in the pot is 4 times (80/20) the bet required to complete the hand, you should play.
Evaluation of what is required for your hand to become a winner is critical to the decision of whether to continue with the play or not. If there is a potential flush on the board and your hand will only improve to two pair orthree of a kind, your worst case would be to complete your hand and lose the pot. The only worse thing than drawing dead is drawing dead and getting it.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Calling when an all in bet is made
When an all-in bet is made one of the following conditions usually exists.
Case 1 -- The better is short stacked and the blinds are
going to over take his stack.
Case 2 -- The better has a made hand and wants to
shutdown play before someone draws a better hand.
Case 3 -- The better is bluffing.
Case 4 -- The better has the nuts (the best hand possible).
Case 1 - Will be fairly obvious and if the caller has a reasonable starting hand coupled with a large enough chip stack to absorb the all-in, the call should be made even if there are other callers. The object of the tournament is to eliminate players and the more callers the higher the chance the better will be eliminated.
Case 2 - Will be made to protect a better than average starting hand that has little chance of improvement and can be evaluated as a median pocket pair if made before the flop. If the bet is made after the flop its done to protect a low end straight or a low flush or in the case of very aggressive players a straight or flush draw. The flop must be evaluated for potential hands/draws. If the better has the nuts, the all-in bet would not be placed. The better will bet after the river and will make a value bet at the flop.
Case 3 - All-in bluffs are rare because of the danger of the better being eliminated however if the better has an overwhelming chip count to any remaining players in the hand it may well be a bluff. Calling with a made hand is a possibility.
Case 4 - Calling an all-in bet which requires commitment of all or most of your chips should only be done if there is reason to believe the caller holds the best hand. Calling on a draw should never be done except in Case 1
Case 1 -- The better is short stacked and the blinds are
going to over take his stack.
Case 2 -- The better has a made hand and wants to
shutdown play before someone draws a better hand.
Case 3 -- The better is bluffing.
Case 4 -- The better has the nuts (the best hand possible).
Case 1 - Will be fairly obvious and if the caller has a reasonable starting hand coupled with a large enough chip stack to absorb the all-in, the call should be made even if there are other callers. The object of the tournament is to eliminate players and the more callers the higher the chance the better will be eliminated.
Case 2 - Will be made to protect a better than average starting hand that has little chance of improvement and can be evaluated as a median pocket pair if made before the flop. If the bet is made after the flop its done to protect a low end straight or a low flush or in the case of very aggressive players a straight or flush draw. The flop must be evaluated for potential hands/draws. If the better has the nuts, the all-in bet would not be placed. The better will bet after the river and will make a value bet at the flop.
Case 3 - All-in bluffs are rare because of the danger of the better being eliminated however if the better has an overwhelming chip count to any remaining players in the hand it may well be a bluff. Calling with a made hand is a possibility.
Case 4 - Calling an all-in bet which requires commitment of all or most of your chips should only be done if there is reason to believe the caller holds the best hand. Calling on a draw should never be done except in Case 1
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Table position in Texas-Holdem
In Texas-Holdem table position actually rotates with the deal. A button usually with DEALER written on it is passed from player to player as the hands are dealt to designate who is required to put up the small and big blind and who is required to act first during subsequent play of the hand. The player to the left of the dealer button is the small blind (1/2 of the big blind) and the second player to the left is the big blind.
• The player to the left of the big blind will act first after the initial two card deal.
• The player to the left of the DEALER button will act first during the next three community card deals.
• As the hand progresses it is important to recognize where your position in this rotation is and when you must act in relation to the larger chip stacks remaining in the hand.
• It is not desirable to have a player with large chips stacked making a move or acting after your action especially if you are considering a bet that would involve having to improve your hand or complete bluff to win.
• Never put yourself in a position where you are making an all in bet into a larger chip stack unless you have the absolute winning hand.
Good table position also gives you the ability to watch the other players open their hands and to judge their reaction. Never look at your hand until it is your turn to act or you may be missing information which could be useful later in the hand.
Robert Auchmuty
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C: Object of Tournament Poker
The final goal of a player in a poker tournament is to be the last player in the game and have all the chips. Subsequent to that achievement, there are a series of goals to be reached all dealing with the elimination of other players.
At the beginning of play the primary goal is to increase the chip count of your stack. This can be measured by tracking the increase of your chip stack relative to the amount of increases in the blind structure. Players normally start with a chip stack greater than 60 times the big blind. The goal is to collect as many chips as safely possible and to avoid becoming “short stacked” by having a chip count of less than ten times the big blind currently being played. Being short stacked usually means that a more aggressive play is required when a starting hand of reasonable value is dealt. This aggressive play increases the chance of being eliminated from the tournament but waiting for a pat hand may mean if it does show up there may not be enough chips left to bet to have the effect of increasing the chip count to a playable level.
Since the object of play is to eliminate fellow players from the tournament when players do become short stacked they also become targets of elimination by their fellow players. This can actually become an advantage in that an all-in move by a short stack may generate more than one call and will thereby increase the potential winnings of the short stack player wins the hand. Elimination from a tournament because of the turn of the cards should not be considered as poor play. Loss of chips and subsequent elimination through inappropriate betting or chasing of cards on both the turn and river should be a wake up call to evaluate the style of play. Most players know what went wrong and the successful players make adjustments.
At the beginning of play the primary goal is to increase the chip count of your stack. This can be measured by tracking the increase of your chip stack relative to the amount of increases in the blind structure. Players normally start with a chip stack greater than 60 times the big blind. The goal is to collect as many chips as safely possible and to avoid becoming “short stacked” by having a chip count of less than ten times the big blind currently being played. Being short stacked usually means that a more aggressive play is required when a starting hand of reasonable value is dealt. This aggressive play increases the chance of being eliminated from the tournament but waiting for a pat hand may mean if it does show up there may not be enough chips left to bet to have the effect of increasing the chip count to a playable level.
Since the object of play is to eliminate fellow players from the tournament when players do become short stacked they also become targets of elimination by their fellow players. This can actually become an advantage in that an all-in move by a short stack may generate more than one call and will thereby increase the potential winnings of the short stack player wins the hand. Elimination from a tournament because of the turn of the cards should not be considered as poor play. Loss of chips and subsequent elimination through inappropriate betting or chasing of cards on both the turn and river should be a wake up call to evaluate the style of play. Most players know what went wrong and the successful players make adjustments.
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Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Opening Betting Stratigy
Tournament play success is dependant on the players dealt cards and the players betting strategy. The blinds in a tournament start at low levels and players are tempted to limp in and experiment with high odds starting hands when there are no raises prior to the flop. Small pairs, suited and unsuited connectors and ace/blank are hands which become attractive to experiment with in this low cost atmosphere. Reality is that these hands represent long drawing odds and then when they do hit they are sometimes apparent to the other players and the expected rewards do not materialize.
The correct play during this during this low blind period is to commit a bet/call/raise of three times the big blind when the value of the hand exceeds the pot odds. The pot odds can be projected even in an early position because normally all but 2 to 3 players will fold their hands. The pot odds generated with the two or three players are 2:1 or 3:1 for the betting prior to the flop. Making this bet will require a hand with an expected pot win percentage of at least 33% These hands, in the case of three to four players, would be any pocket pair of 7s or above or any two cards jack or above. There will many times when no other players will challenge your bet if its made from an early position.
If the hand shows no improvement from the flop, any continuation bet/call has to depend on the ability to read your opponents and being able to make an educated determination of what the percentage of making the winning hand is to the new pot odds. As the play continues, and the blinds increase, the ability to continue this betting strategy will be based on the amount of chips available in the players chip stack and the reactions of the other players. When the blinds reach high levels and this betting strategy is are not supported by the current chip stack or the other players actions, it becomes necessary to adjust your play according to the amount of chips available and to apply the knowledge gained from observing the betting and the other players mannerisms and playing techniques.
“All-in” betting in Texas-Holdem tournament play
In card rooms and private games, Texas-Holdem tournament players are often repeating the mantra “I’m all-in” as their opening bet in a hand. This is done without consideration of the odds/percentage of being beaten and in turn eliminated from the tournament. The best starting hand Texas-Holdem is two aces and even this hand against nine players with random cards is a 3 to 1 possibility of being beaten.If the bettor has good table position, the odds of winning with aces becomes even (win/lose) with four remaining players and becomes progressively better with later table position. However, even with only one player left there is still a 15% chance of being beaten. That means that with two players, the bettor and one other, left in the hand, one in six times the aces will be cracked and the all-in bettor will lose and possibly be eliminated from the tournament. Careful consideration of table position, odds of being beaten and the strength (chip count) of any remaining players in the hand should be made prior to making an all-in bet. The following table reflects the losing percentages for the two card starting hands with only two players remaining in the hand.
- A-A 15%
- suited A-K 23%
- 10-10 25%
- unsuited A-K 27%
- 6-6 38%
- suited Q-J 40%
- 3-3 46%
- unsuited Q-J 42%
“All-in“ betting in Texas- Holdem tournament play on a two card starting hand should only be done when losing the hand cannot not result in player elimination or the player being short stacked. With a good starting hand and the possibility of being eliminated present, a more appropriate starting bet may be three to five times the big blind with a follow-up bet after the flop. This large initial bet may be enough to take down the hand and will give the bettor the option to fold if the bet is raised by a later position player.
Robert Auchmuty
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