Tuesday, February 17, 2009

“All-in” betting in Texas-Holdem tournament play

In card rooms and private games, Texas-Holdem tournament players are often repeating the mantra “I’m all-in” as their opening bet in a hand. This is done without consideration of the odds/percentage of being beaten and in turn eliminated from the tournament. The best starting hand Texas-Holdem is two aces and even this hand against nine players with random cards is a 3 to 1 possibility of being beaten.

If the bettor has good table position, the odds of winning with aces becomes even (win/lose) with four remaining players and becomes progressively better with later table position. However, even with only one player left there is still a 15% chance of being beaten. That means that with two players, the bettor and one other, left in the hand, one in six times the aces will be cracked and the all-in bettor will lose and possibly be eliminated from the tournament. Careful consideration of table position, odds of being beaten and the strength (chip count) of any remaining players in the hand should be made prior to making an all-in bet. The following table reflects the losing percentages for the two card starting hands with only two players remaining in the hand.

  1. A-A 15%
  2. suited A-K 23%
  3. 10-10 25%
  4. unsuited A-K 27%
  5. 6-6 38%
  6. suited Q-J 40%
  7. 3-3 46%
  8. unsuited Q-J 42%
Even though the odds of winning the hand are in favor of the better, in all cases the risk of being eliminated from the tournament is there if the calling player has sufficient chips to cover the better.

“All-in“ betting in Texas- Holdem tournament play on a two card starting hand should only be done when losing the hand cannot not result in player elimination or the player being short stacked. With a good starting hand and the possibility of being eliminated present, a more appropriate starting bet may be three to five times the big blind with a follow-up bet after the flop. This large initial bet may be enough to take down the hand and will give the bettor the option to fold if the bet is raised by a later position player.

Robert Auchmuty

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